oh no my metagame

Measuring Eric Rosen's impact on the popularity of the Stafford Gambit

Until 2020 the Stafford Gambit had been relegated to the dustbin of chess history, and seemingly for good reason: White has many ways to get a big advantage against it. But then popular streamer Eric Rosen started making videos about it and its popularity took off. Suddenly, it seemed like you couldn’t play e4 without running into it.

How popular is the Stafford really, how much did its popularity change after Eric started posting videos about it, and have White players adapted to beat it? We can use the Lichess database to answer these questions.

How popular is the Stafford, really?

The Stafford is defined by the moves 1. e4 e5 2. Nf3 Nf6 3. Nxe5 Nc6. Like in the Petroff Defense, Black allows their e5-pawn to be taken, but rather than trying to win back the e4-pawn, they just offer a knight trade and focus on quick development.

The definition of “how popular” isn’t quite as obvious as it seems. You could look at the total number of games that reach the starting position of the Stafford, or that number as a fraction of all games played, but White also has a say in which opening the game follows.

When we talk about the popularity of the Stafford, I think what we really mean is how often Black would go for it if White allowed it. So I looked at the total probability Black would go for the Stafford, assuming White played “their half” of the moves. This approach is similar to David Foster’s trap scorer. Reddit user hold_my_fish also did a similar analysis.

It’s not just in your head: The Stafford really did increase in popularity after Eric started making videos about it, going from about 0.5% to 2% of games where Black had the chance to play it. A few observations:

• While it increased a lot relative to its old level, you’ll still face it pretty rarely overall as an e4 player. People still play the Sicilian, the Berlin, and all the other defenses to e4.

• It wasn’t just a flash in the pan. The popularity increased… and then stayed at the new level.

Analyzing the win rate

Given that the Stafford was relatively obscure before Eric popularized it, but allows White several ways to gain a big advantage if they know what they’re doing, you’d think most of its punch comes from surprise value.

So did White players get better at countering the Stafford over time?

Not really. White’s win rate bounced around between 47% and 49%, but if there was any trend towards White players cracking this opening, it was minimal at best. Since the beginning of 2020, White players have not managed to score 50% against the Stafford in a single month.

Which is a little odd, because there are many ways for White to get an advantage, and they’re not that complicated. Everyone and their grandma has made a Stafford refutation video, but here’s my little contribution as a Lichess study. There really aren’t many lines, so if you’re sick of losing to the Stafford, take a few minutes and learn it.

But of course there are many openings to learn and the Stafford is not necessarily the highest priority when you’re working on your White repertoire. And what I’ve found time and again, no matter how I slice it, is that most players simply don’t know very much about openings, even main lines.

What does it all mean?

Philidor famously said “... les Pions. Ils ſont l’ame des Echecs.” Or, “Pawns are the soul of chess.”

Allow me to suggest a modern revision: “Pawns suck. All they do is get in the way of pieces.”

If you think that sounds stupid, maybe it would be more impressive in French? Les pions sont nuls. Tout ce qu'ils font, c'est gêner les pièces.

What are pawns good for, anyway? The most obvious answer is that a pawn can become a queen if it reaches the other end of the board, so you can often win in the endgame by creating a passed pawn. But to actually realize this scenario from a pawn-up opening would mean making it through about 30 moves without either player having a major mishap, which is rare at most levels.

Pawns can also control squares in their modest little way. This is especially relevant in the Stafford Gambit because not only is White up a pawn, they have a two-to-zero advantage in center pawns.

This means not only should White win an endgame, they should also dominate the middlegame, especially if they manage to set up a classical pawn center with d4. Assuming, of course, they don’t get blown out by Black’s superior piece activity first.

And this is the key to the Stafford’s success. Yes, if White plays perfectly they should get their pieces out and enjoy the extra pawn, but in the meantime Black has easier development and more active pieces. Most games aren’t decided by nursing a pawn advantage for 30 moves, they’re decided when one side makes a horrible mistake and gets blown out. The more active your pieces are, the more likely you are to be dishing out rather than receiving haymakers.

So, at the end of the day, should you play the Stafford Gambit? In classical games against masters, probably not. But for fast games against most players on Lichess, the fact that it’s scored above 50% with the Black pieces in every month since 2020 is pretty impressive. If White players haven’t figured out how to beat it yet, I doubt they will any time soon.